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今日汇评
欧元出现强劲反弹持续24小时,据推测,希腊可能解决一些悬而未决的问题,确保进一步援助现金。昨天下午,希腊政府发言人宣布,政治领导人定于今天中午应对新的三驾马车建议;这一发展似乎表明一个潜在的交易已经达成或非常接近被敲响。此外,似乎债务情况有进展。在抗战初期,欧洲央行已初步同意参与债务掉期转让其持有的efsf采购成本,取决于参与私营部门投资者。
积极的希腊新闻不仅具有煽动欧元上涨,也掀起了风险偏好,足以催化良好收益的股票市场。日经指数上涨1.10%,亨森歌+ 1.4%和+ 2.4%上海复合材料。金价已经从昨日低点1710美元恢复到1750美元的水平,原油现在徘徊在每桶99美元。美元兑日元设法爬上77的第一次,以去除一些压力,外汇市场日本央行和财政部采取戏剧性的行动。我们还希望日本当局保持敏锐地意识到美元兑日元走势,而不要怀疑他们愿意再次开始介入日元大幅升值。
今天的会议没有重要经济数据发布,市场可能会继续专注于即将到来的希腊公告。明天我们将获得最新的英国央行和欧洲央行的货币政策会议;以及欧洲央行新闻发布记者会盘问马里奥德拉吉的性质和影响欧洲央行的债务交换的参与。
The euro has rallied strongly over the last 24 hours as speculation mounts that Greece is close to resolving some of the outstanding issues standing in the way of securing further bailout cash. Yesterday afternoon, a Greek government spokesman announced that political leaders had scheduled to meet today and respond to the latest troika proposals by noon; a development which seems to suggest a potential deal has been struck or is very close to being struck. Additionally there appears to be progress made on the debt swap situation. After initial resistance, the ECB has tentatively agreed to participate in the debt swap by transferring its holdings at purchase cost to the EFSF, contingent on the participation of private sector investors.
The positive Greece news has not only fanned euro crosses higher, but also lifted risk appetite sufficiently to catalyze good gains in the equity markets. The Nikkei is up 1.10%, Hang Seng +1.4% and Shanghai Composite +2.4%. Gold has recovered to $1750 levels from yesterday’s low of $1710, and crude oil is now hovering around $99 per barrel. USDJPY has managed to climb above 77.00 for the first time this month, taking some of the pressure off the BoJ and Japanese Ministry of Finance to take dramatic action in the FX market. We still expect the Japanese authorities to remain acutely aware of USDJPY movements, and do not doubt their willingness to intervene should the yen begin to appreciate sharply once again.
There are no major economic data releases due in today’s session so the market is likely to remain focused on the upcoming Greece announcements. Tomorrow we will get the latest BoE and ECB monetary policy meetings; and the ECB press conference should be particularly interesting as journalists will get to grill Mario Draghi on the nature and implications of the ECB’s debt swap involvement.
机构来源:ACM